MORE PROOF THAT al-QAEDA IS MORE THAN "ALIVE AND WELL"

Bin Laden´s organization is much more sophisticated than we have been led to believe.

A new report by a former senior CIA official who led the agency's hunt for weapons of mass destruction now states: "If Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants had been interested in small-scale attacks [on US soil], there is little doubt that they could have done so." The former official, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, portrays al-Qaeda's leaders as "determined and patient, willing to wait for years to acquire the kind of weapons that could inflict widespread casualties".

The Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism´s initial report in December 2008 warned that a terrorist attack using weapons of mass destruction was likely by 2013. Mr. Mowatt-Larssen, a 23-year CIA veteran, led the agency's internal task force on al-Qaeda and weapons of mass destruction after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and was later named Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence for the US Energy Department.

His report warns that bin Laden's threat to attack the West with weapons of mass destruction is not "empty rhetoric" but a top strategic goal for an organization that "seeks the economic ruin of the United States and its allies".

Al-Qaeda's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, had called off a planned chemical attack on New York's subway system in 2003. He offered the following explanation: "The plot to unleash poison gas on New Yorkers was being dropped for ´something better´." This was in a Zawahiri message intercepted by U.S. eavesdroppers.

The meaning of Zawahiri's cryptic threat remained unclear for more than six years. The new report now warns that al-Qaeda has not abandoned its goal of attacking the United States with a chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons.

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, draws on his knowledge of classified case files to argue that al-Qaeda has been far more sophisticated in its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction than is commonly believed. Al-Qaeda is pursuing parallel paths for acquiring weapons and forging alliances with groups that can offer resources and expertise.

The report was recently released by the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The report comes as a panel on weapons of mass destruction appointed by Congress prepares to release a new assessment of the federal government's preparedness for such an attack.

The report cites patterns in al-Qaeda's 15-year pursuit of weapons of mass destruction that reflect a deliberateness and sophistication in assembling the needed expertise and equipment.

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen describes how Zawahiri hired two scientists, a Pakistani microbiologist sympathetic to al-Qaeda and a Malaysian army captain trained in the United States to work separately on efforts to build a biological weapons lab and acquire deadly strains of anthrax bacteria.

Al-Qaeda achieved both goals before September 2001, but apparently had not successfully weaponized the anthrax spores when the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan forced the scientists to flee.

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen stated; "This was far from run-of-the-mill terrorism, the program was highly compartmentalized, at the highest level of the organization. It was methodical, and it was professional."

He said he has seen no evidence linking al-Qaeda's program with the anthrax attacks on U.S. politicians and news outlets in 2001. Zawahiri's plan was aimed at mass casualties and "not just trying to scare people with a few [tainted] letters," he said.

Evidence has suggested that al Qaeda leaders have settled on anthrax as the weapon of choice and believed that the tools for a major biological attack are within their grasp, the former CIA official said. Al-Qaeda remained interested in nuclear weapons as well but understood that the odds of success were much longer.

"They realized they needed a lucky break," Mowatt-Larssen said. "That meant buying or stealing fissile material or acquiring a stolen bomb."

Bush administration officials had feared that bin Laden was close to obtaining nuclear weapons in 2003. This was after U.S. spies picked up a cryptic message by a Saudi affiliate of al-Qaeda referring to plans to obtain three stolen Russian nuclear devices. The intercepts prompted the U.S. and Saudi governments to go on high alert. It later led to an aggressive Saudi crackdown that resulted in the arrest or killing of dozens of suspected al-Qaeda associates.

"The crackdown was so successful," Mowatt-Larssen said, "that intelligence about the program basically dried up."

After that, terrorists' chatter about a possible nuclear acquisition halted abruptly.

Unfortunately, U.S. officials were never able to determine if the plot was dismantled.

Or was it simply pushed deeper underground?

We may never know until it´s too late.

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